خانلرخانی

Mohammad Amin Khanlarkhani: "Given the decline in the stock market index last fall and the decline in the volume of sellers, it seems that the market is on the way to achieving relative stability."



Tehran, February. 02(SENA)- Mohammad Amin Khanlarkhani, in an interview with the Securities  and Exchange News Agency (Sena), regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, said: "Considering the international situation, the export debate is expected to flourish, followed by a positive trend in Iran's trade balance." On the other hand, the possibility of releasing blocked resources will increase the foreign exchange resources available to the country; On this basis, it can be inferred that as a result of these two events, both psychologically and practically, the ground for the devaluation of the dollar is provided; However, due to inflation in the economic sphere, the threshold is not lower than 20,000 tomans for the dollar.

The university lecturer added: "Given the decline in the stock market index last fall and the decline in the volume of sellers, it seems that the market is on the way to achieving relative stability." On the other hand, due to the recession in other similar markets such as housing, dollars, gold and cars, the decrease in the attractiveness of these markets has reduced the expectation of attracting resources in them compared to the past. Given issues such as ease of trading in the stock market and the availability of liquidity, it seems that the capital market can once again become the main option for investors.

Referring to the top industries, Khanlarkhani added: "Considering the exchange rate trend, it seems that investing in export-oriented companies is relatively riskier and moving towards companies that are not affected by currency fluctuations is more desirable." Meanwhile, the banking group is highly recommended due to the decline it has experienced and the existing potentials. In addition to the banking group, IT-based industries also have better growth potential than other groups due to their development horizon.

A prediction

In predicting the future of the market, he said: "As mentioned above, given the possible downward trend of the dollar, the reduction of political risks, as well as the recession in parallel markets and the impact of the capital market, these areas are expected to be calm and low next year." Witness the fluctuation; Next year, we are also facing the presidential election, in which the historical record of the stock index always shows relative calm and relative stagnation in the market. Of course, expected inflation as well as the budgeting process can pave the way for market growth. Therefore, given the prevailing conditions, political developments seem to be the main risk to the market.

The capital market expert continued: "The analysis of the" Purchasing Managers' Index "shows that the downtrend in the fall has ended and we now have a relative improvement in this index; Continuation of this trend can be promising economic growth in the real world and improving the stock market index. It noted that in most cases there was a significant correlation between the growth of purchasing managers' index and the growth of the index.

Why are 9-month reports positive?

Regarding the 9-month reports of companies, Khanlarkhani said: "Surveys conducted on the performance of companies in the 9-month reports indicate appropriate and significant growth. This has happened for several reasons." First, the state of the fight against coronary disease around the world in the past few months has led to a boom in world production, followed by rising prices; therefore, global prices have increased the profits of companies. Second, the increase in the exchange rate during this period has led to an increase in foreign exchange earnings, which has increased the profitability of companies.

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